Data for: Estimating direct rebound effects for personal automotive travel in Great Britain

Abstract of associated article: Direct rebound effects result from increased consumption of cheaper energy services. For example, more fuel-efficient cars encourage more car travel. This study is the first to quantify this effect for personal automotive travel in Great Britain. We use aggregate time series data on transport activity, fuel consumption and other relevant variables over the period 1970–2011 and estimate the direct rebound effect from the elasticity of both vehicle and passenger kilometres with respect to: a) vehicle fuel efficiency (km/MJ); b) the fuel cost of driving (£/km); and c) road fuel prices (£/MJ). We estimate a total of 108 models, paying careful attention to methodological issues and model diagnostics. Taking changes in fuel efficiency as the explanatory variable, we find little evidence of a long-run direct rebound effect in Great Britain over this period. However, taking changes in either the fuel cost of driving or fuel prices as the explanatory variable we estimate a direct rebound effect in the range 9% to 36% with a mean of ~19%. This estimate is consistent with the results of US studies and suggests that around one fifth of the potential fuel savings from improved car fuel efficiency may have been eroded through increased driving. We also show how the normalisation of distance travelled (per capita, per adult or per driver) affects the results obtained.关联论文摘要：直接回弹效应（Direct Rebound Effect）源于消费者对更廉价能源服务的消费增加。例如，燃油效率更高的汽车会促使人们增加驾车出行里程。本研究首次针对英国的私人机动车出行场景量化了该效应。本研究采用1970至2011年间的交通出行活动、燃油消耗及其他相关变量的总量时间序列数据，基于机动车行驶里程与乘客出行里程分别对以下指标的弹性估算直接回弹效应：a) 机动车燃油效率（km/MJ）；b) 驾车燃油成本（£/km）；c) 道路燃油价格（£/MJ）。本研究共构建108个模型，并严格关注方法论问题与模型诊断结果。以燃油效率变化作为解释变量时，本研究未发现该时期英国存在长期直接回弹效应的显著证据。但以驾车燃油成本或燃油价格变化作为解释变量时，本研究估算得到的直接回弹效应区间为9%至36%，平均值约为19%。该估算结果与美国同类研究的结论一致，表明机动车燃油效率提升所带来的潜在燃油节省中，约有五分之一可能因驾车出行里程增加而被抵消。本研究同时阐明了出行里程的标准化处理方式（按人均、按成年人口均摊或按驾驶员均摊）对所得研究结果的影响。