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Why People Disagree About What Drives Stock Prices

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NBER2026-03-01 更新2026-03-14 收录
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https://www.nber.org/papers/w34923
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We show that, to a first-order approximation, estimates of fluctuations in Shillers fundamental price relative to observed price depend primarily on forecasts of long-horizon expected returns. Researchers using different measures of cash flow and valuation may reach different conclusions about the
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2026-03-01
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