How China’s African Swine Fever Outbreaks Affected Global Pork Markets

After reaching China from Europe in 2018, the African swine fever (ASF) virus spread throughout the country, dramatically reducing China’s pork supplies. This report investigates the impacts on China’s pork market that resulted from the virus and how China’s increased demand for imported pork affected markets for pork-exporting countries. China’s swine herd experienced a 30-month cycle of decline and recovery, as the country lost an estimated 27.9 million metric tons of its pork output. Pork prices in China more than doubled despite a surge of pork exports from the European Union, United States, Canada, Brazil, and other countries. Pork exports to China prompted smaller price increases in exporting countries’ pork markets. As China’s domestic pork supplies recovered about 3 years after the first ASF outbreaks, Chinese pork prices declined to near their pre-ASF level. U.S. pork exports to China declined but remained above their pre-ASF volume. Volatility in China’s pork market is an ongoing source of uncertainty for exporters despite the rebound in China’s production.