Probabilistic Disaster Risk

Disaster risk is “the potential loss of life, injury, or destroyed or damaged assets which could occur to a system, society or a community in a specific period of time, determined probabilistically as a function of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity” (UNDRR, 2017).

In the Risk Data Hub, disaster risk is assessed through a probabilistic approach. Probabilistic hazard data provides the foundation. Exposure is determined by the overlap between hazards and assets, representing the presence of assets within a hazard’s footprint. This allows the computation of Expected Annual Loss (EAL). The EAL values are then combined with vulnerability indicators and normalised to produce risk estimates across Europe. All outputs are provided via the H3 grid system, ensuring a consistent spatial representation.