IAM_COMPACT_Study_4_EU_Industry

This dataset contains the underling raw data of IAM COMPACT "Study 4 - EU Industry".

The study started from stakeholders’ questions around relocation of European Industries and associated impacts on costs, sustainability and labour and condensed these into two sub-studies:

The first one analysed the European steel industry and a potential relocation thereof to other world regions because of high energy and CO2 prices in the EU.

The second one addressed – in the context of potential re-shoring of critical net-zero technologies to the EU – the raw material demand for upscaling solar and wind technologies in four global regions, including the EU (section 3 of D4.7 (Holtz et al., 2023)).

The first sub-study on the EU steel industry involved the soft-linking of several models to assess the potential impact of different degrees of trade restrictions for steel. Three scenarios are analysed in each of which all countries implement their current climate policies and achieve the GHG emissions reduction targets set in their respective NDCs and in their long-term targets, but different steel-related trade constraints are assumed in the three scenarios:

“NDC_LTT” scenario: no trade restriction

“CBAM” scenario: steel imports to the EU are penalized based on their CO2 footprint

“INDEPENDENCE” scenario: steel production levels in the EU may not drop below the level of 2019 (which is guaranteed by subsidies provided for steel production)

The second sub-study on raw material demand for upscaling solar and wind technologies builds on the three scenarios of the steel-related study (see above). Results from GCAM on renewables upscaling were used as an input to some modules of WILIAM which allowed to calculate the raw materials demands implied, which were then compared to current annual extraction and the known global reserves.

The GCAM model was used to develop scenarios for the steel production in different global regions considering trade and trade restrictions and all other model applications in this study built on these results. The three steel-related scenarios analysed with GCAM all build on the NDC_LTT scenario of study 1 used for the comparison of EU Fit-for-55 policy to a cost-optimal scenario (section 3 of D4.5 (Mittal et al., 2023)). Therefore, all policies included in the NDC_LTT scenario of Study 1 are implicitly included in Study 4 scenarios as well. However, these were not analysed specifically in Study 4. The policy measures explicitly addressed in Study 4 are related to steel trade. Furthermore, the CO2 price resulting from GCAM was used as an input by the WISEE EDM-I bottom-up steel model.

Results of the study have been documented in D4.7 - Sectoral and cross-sectoral analysis (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.13839232)