Comparison of predicted rates (per 100,000 people) of hospitalizations and death in the context of the 2009 S-OIV outbreak in Mexico, for various concurrent vaccination strategies.

We considered a baseline situation where no vaccine is used; a seasonal vaccination strategy where priority groups for vaccination are young children and seniors, as for seasonal influenza; and an adaptive vaccination strategy where vaccine is allocated according to data on age-specific rates of mortality and hospitalization with a baseline R0 = 1.6 [26] and vaccination coverage is 5 or 20%. Vaccination is initiated 25 days after the epidemic onset when an epidemiologic alert was issued in Mexico.