Climate change-driven shifts in C3 and C4 grass distributions and leaf traits could lead to changes in community-level flammability

Climate change poses challenges to the grasslands of the North American Great Plains Region (GPR), where shifts in species distributions and fire dynamics are expected. The differential responses of C4 and C3 grass species to future climate conditions, particularly in habitat suitability and flammability, are critical for understanding ecosystem changes. This study uses species distribution models to predict shifts in habitat suitability for 37 species under future climate scenarios and assesses flammability traits in a Free-Air CO2 Enrichment study, focusing on species' physiological responses to elevated CO2, warming, and drought. Our models predict that C4 species will retain higher habitat suitability, while C3 species will decline. Leaf-level flammability analysis shows that species with higher water-use efficiency under elevated CO2 will exhibit reduced flammability, potentially decreasing the predicted rate of spread (ROS) when such species dominate. In contrast, species with hig..., , # Climate change-driven shifts in C3 and C4 grass distributions and leaf traits could lead to changes in community-level flammability

Raubenheimer, S.L., Zheng, L., Stefanski, A., Reich, P.B.

### Citation

Please cite this data and code as:
Raubenheimer, S.L. et al. (2025). *Climate change-driven shifts in C3 and C4 grass distributions and leaf traits could lead to changes in community-level flammability*. Dryad Digital Repository. [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.dv41ns29n](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.dv41ns29n)

#### Project Description

This repository includes species distribution models (SDMs), trait-based flammability assessments, and fire behavior simulations to explore how climate change may shift species distributions and alter fire regimes in North American grasslands. The study models 37 C3 and C4 grass species under current and future climate scenarios using MaxEnt. Empirical trait data from a Free-Air CO₂ Enrichment experiment (TeRaCON) are used to estimate flammability a...,