The Civilizational Balance (al-Mizan al-Hadari): pre-registered confirmatory analysis v0.7 — plan, code and results

Pre-registered confirmatory test of a composite index of institutional balance built from V-Dem v16 (182 countries, 1950–2022). The analysis plan (v0.7) was registered on OSF Registries on 28 October 2026 (https://osf.io/uvnar/) before any real run; the single real run followed the same day with the frozen code. None of the six primary hypotheses was supported after Holm correction (smallest Holm-adjusted p = 0.22), and none improved out-of-time prediction. In five hypotheses, effects of the size the test was designed to detect are ruled out; for H4, no effect was detected but one is not ruled out. The deposit contains the frozen plan (Arabic), a dated addendum, the independent statistical review (published with the reviewer's consent), the code, the raw outputs with SHA-256 fingerprints, and the results report (Arabic). See README.md (English).