Integrating socio-ecological suitability with human-wildlife conflict risk: Case study for translocation of a large ungulate

1. Translocations are essential for reestablishing wildlife populations. As they sometimes fail, it is critical to assess factors that influence their success pre-translocation. 2. Socio-ecological suitability models (SESMs) integrate social acceptance and ecological suitability to enable identification of areas where wildlife populations will expand, which makes it likely that SESMs will also be useful for predicting translocation success. 3. To inform site-selection for potential elk (Cervus canadensis) reintroduction to northeastern Minnesota, USA, we developed broad-scale maps of social acceptance from surveys of local residents and landowners, animal use equivalence (AUE) from forage measured in the field, and empirical conflict risk from geospatial data. Resulting SESMs integrated social acceptance favorability scores, AUE, and conflict risk, and weighted SESMs showed the relative influences of acceptance and conflict. 4. Social acceptance was positive for local residents and landowners (mean ≥ 5.4; scale of 1 to 7). AUE (scaled to an elk home range) ranged between 1 and 9 elk/16 km2 during winter, and from 14 to 83 elk/16 km2 during summer. Human-elk conflict risk was low (mean ≤ 0.10; scaled 0 to 1), increasing from north to south. Geographical distributions differed for social acceptance, AUE, and conflict risk, and weighted SESMs revealed unsuitable areas that were otherwise obscured. 5. Synthesis and applications. Integrating human-wildlife conflict risk into SESMs shows where social acceptance of translocated species is likely to erode, even where viewed favorably pre-translocation, to inform translocation planning by highlighting interactions between key factors. Such integrated models supplement existing reintroduction biology frameworks by supporting decision-making and knowledge development. In northeastern Minnesota, natural resource managers who are considering elk reintroductions are using SESMs reported here to identify where human-elk conflict is likely to result in an isolated elk population and where addressing concerns for area residents about conflict risk is essential.1. 物种易地转移（Translocation）对野生动物种群的复建至关重要。由于此类项目有时会失败，因此在实施前评估影响其成功的关键因素极为关键。 2. 社会生态适宜性模型（Socio-ecological suitability models, SESMs）整合社会接纳度与生态适宜性，能够识别出野生动物种群可实现扩张的区域，这表明SESMs同样可用于预测物种易地转移的成功率。 3. 为给美国明尼苏达州东北部加拿大马鹿（Cervus canadensis）潜在再引入项目的选址提供科学依据，本研究通过对当地居民与土地所有者开展问卷调查，生成了社会接纳度的大范围空间分布图；通过野外实地饲草测量获取了动物利用当量（Animal Use Equivalence, AUE）；并基于地理空间数据推导得到实证冲突风险值。最终构建的SESMs整合了社会接纳度好评度评分、动物利用当量与冲突风险，而加权SESMs则展示了社会接纳度与冲突风险的相对影响权重。 4. 当地居民与土地所有者的社会接纳度呈积极态势（平均值≥5.4，评分区间为1~7）。经马鹿家域尺度标准化后的动物利用当量，冬季取值范围为1~9头马鹿/16平方千米，夏季则为14~83头马鹿/16平方千米。人-马鹿冲突风险整体较低（平均值≤0.10，标准化区间为0~1），且从北向南呈逐渐升高趋势。社会接纳度、动物利用当量与冲突风险的空间分布存在显著差异，而加权SESMs则揭示了此前被掩盖的不适宜区域。 5. 综合与应用：将人-野生动物冲突风险纳入SESMs后，可明确即使在易地转移项目实施前社会接纳度较高的区域，易地放归物种的社会接纳度也可能出现下滑，从而通过揭示关键因素间的相互作用为易地转移规划提供参考。此类整合模型通过支持决策制定与知识拓展，补充了现有再引入生物学研究框架。在美国明尼苏达州东北部，考虑开展马鹿再引入项目的自然资源管理者正借助本研究报道的SESMs，识别出可能因人类-马鹿冲突导致马鹿种群孤立的区域，以及当地居民对冲突风险的担忧亟待解决的区域。