Data for: Civil war and U.S. foreign influence

Abstract of associated article: We study how foreign interventions affect civil war around the world. In an infinitely repeated game we combine a gambling for resurrection mechanism for the influencing country with the canonical bargaining model of war in the influenced country to micro-found sudden shifts in power among the domestic bargaining partners, which are known to lead to war due to commitment problems. We test two of our model predictions that allow us to identify the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with the U.S. presidential approval rates. These results withstand several robustness checks and, overall, suggest that foreign influence is a sizable driver of domestic conflict.关联文章摘要：本研究探讨全球范围内外国干预对内战的影响机制。我们在无限重复博弈框架中，将干预国的孤注一掷（gambling for resurrection）机制与受干预国的标准战争讨价还价模型相结合，从微观层面为国内谈判伙伴间的权力突然更迭奠定理论基础——此类权力更迭因承诺问题而被证实会引发战争。为识别外国干预对内战发生率的影响，我们检验了两项模型预测：其一，全球范围内共和党执政时期内战爆发概率更高；其二，内战爆发概率随美国总统支持率的上升而下降。上述结果通过了多项稳健性检验，整体表明外国干预是国内冲突的重要驱动因素。