Data from: Climate change and population persistence in a hibernating marsupial

Climate change has physiological consequences on organisms, ecosystems,
and human societies, surpassing the pace of organismal adaptation.
Hibernating mammals are particularly vulnerable as winter survival is
determined by short-term physiological changes triggered by temperature.
In these animals, winter temperatures cannot surpass certain threshold,
above which hibernators arouse from torpor, increasing several fold their
energy needs when food is unavailable. Here, we parameterized a numerical
model predicting energy consumption in heterothermic species, and modeled
winter survival at different climate change scenarios. As a model species,
we used the arboreal marsupial monito del monte (genus Dromiciops) which
is recognized as one of the few South America hibernators. We modeled four
climate change scenarios (from optimistic to pessimistic), based on IPCC
projections, predicting that northern and coastal populations (Dromiciops
bozinovici) will decline because the minimum number of cold days needed to
survive the winter will not be attained. These populations are also the
most affected by habitat fragmentation and change in land use. Conversely,
Andean and other highland populations at cooler environments, are
predicted to persist and thrive. Given the widespread presence of
hibernating mammals around the world, models based on simple physiological
parameters such as this one, are becoming essential for predicting species
responses to warming in the short term.