Sensitivity analysis: descriptive statistics for 1,000 simulated outbreaks under different model assumptions and datasets.

Model 1 assumed that all 1,000 simulated outbreaks had the same R0, κL, ρL, κI and ρI, all medians from the posterior distributions. Model 2 assumed all simulations with the same κL, ρL, κI and ρI, but with different R0. In model 3 all simulations had different κL, ρL, κI, ρI, and R0. Dataset A includes the results of PCR assay, whereas dataset B includes the results of virus isolation. Duration, duration of the epidemic in days; Tpeak, time of the epidemic peak (days after infection); Ipeak, peak number of infective birds; Rfinal, seroprevalence at the end of the outbreak.