Baseline of Next-Generation Arctic Marine Shipping Assessments - Oldest Continuous Pan-Arctic Satellite Automatic Identification System (AIS) Data Record of Maritime Ship Traffic, 2009-2016

The Arctic is prominent in the history of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), following the RMS Titanic disaster in 1912 and soon signing in London of the Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea in 1914. Eighty years later, the IMO initiated a process to manage shipping in ice-covered oceans. In concert with the IMO Guidelines for Ships Operating in Arctic Ice-Covered Waters in 2002 and their 2004 release of the Arctic 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, the Arctic Council initiated the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA), which issued its final report in 2009. The goal of this chapter is to build on AMSA as a case study of informed decisionmaking through the steps of questions to generate data, which are then integrated into evidence to reveal options (without advocacy), informing decisions by relevant institutions to address a ‘continuum of urgencies’ that involve shipping in the new Arctic Ocean with its transformed sea-ice cap, assessing whether shipping is increasing as sea ice is decreasing (‘ship-ice hypothesis’). Primary sources of data for AMSA involved ship tracking from ground-station Automatic Identification System (AIS), shore-based radar systems and details of fishing vessels as well as other smaller ships provided by the Arctic nations. However, Arctic ship traffic fundamentally changed the year of the AMSA report, when satellite AIS records began providing continuous, synoptic, pan-Arctic coverage of individual ships with data pulsed over seconds to minutes. This chapter reveals the oldest and longest continuous satellite AIS record (from 1 September 2009 through 31 December 2016), applying the ‘spacetime cube’ (which also was unavailable during AMSA) with more than 120,000,000 satellite AIS messages from SpaceQuest Ltd. to begin addressing synoptic questions with any level of granularity from points to regions to pan-Arctic over time. Future questions can be considered to assess ship attributes (including vessel flag state, size and type) in view of biophysical and socio-economic variables, recognizing that shipping and sea ice are recognized as primary drivers of change in the Arctic Ocean. Contributions to these assessments come from all areas of science (inclusively defined as the study of change), across the natural and social sciences with Indigenous knowledge in an holistic (international, interdisciplinary and inclusive) manner to achieve Arctic sustainability across generations. As a practical outcome in a user-defined manner, this chapter reveals characteristics of next-generation Arctic marine shipping assessments, revealing patterns and trends that can be applied to informed decisionmaking about the governance mechanisms and built infrastructure as well as operations for multilateral stability and sustainable development in the new Arctic Ocean.

北极在国际海事组织（International Maritime Organization, IMO）的发展历程中占据重要地位。1912年泰坦尼克号（RMS Titanic）海难发生后，该组织于1914年在伦敦签署了《国际海上人命安全公约（Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea）》。八十年后，国际海事组织启动了冰封海域航运管理相关工作。2002年，IMO发布《北极冰封水域船舶航行指南》，并于2004年推出《2004年北极气候影响评估》；同期北极理事会（Arctic Council）启动了北极航运评估（Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment, AMSA）项目，并于2009年发布最终报告。

本章旨在以AMSA为案例研究，探讨如何通过“提出问题以生成数据、将数据整合为证据以揭示可行方案（不带有任何倡导倾向）”的流程实现循证决策，助力相关机构应对“紧迫性连续体”问题——即应对因海冰消融而出现的北极新海域航运议题，验证“航运随海冰减少而增加”的“船冰假说”。

AMSA的核心数据来源包括地面站自动识别系统（Automatic Identification System, AIS）的船舶追踪数据、岸基雷达系统数据，以及北极国家提供的渔船及其他小型船舶的相关细节。但在AMSA报告发布当年，卫星AIS记录的出现从根本上改变了北极船舶交通的监测模式：该记录可提供连续、全域的泛北极区域单船覆盖，数据更新频率为数秒至数分钟。

本章披露了目前最古老且持续时间最长的卫星AIS记录（2009年9月1日至2016年12月31日），运用了AMSA项目时期尚未出现的“时空立方体（spacetime cube）”分析方法，结合SpaceQuest有限公司（SpaceQuest Ltd.）提供的超过1.2亿条卫星AIS报文，实现了从单点、区域到泛北极区域的任意粒度的全域时空问题分析。

后续可进一步开展相关研究，结合生物物理与社会经济变量，评估船舶属性（包括船旗国、船舶尺寸与类型）；需认识到，航运与海冰变化是北极海洋环境变化的核心驱动因素。本研究的评估成果将涵盖自然科学与社会科学的所有科学领域（广义定义为变化研究），并纳入原住民知识，以整体性、国际性、跨学科与包容性的方式，实现北极代际可持续发展。

作为面向用户的实用产出，本章揭示了下一代北极海洋航运评估的特征，呈现了可用于指导北极新海域治理机制、基础设施建设与运营的模式与趋势，助力实现多边稳定与可持续发展。

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集是2009-2016年间北极地区最古老的连续卫星自动识别系统(AIS)船舶交通记录，为下一代北极海洋航运评估提供基线数据，由Paul Arthur Berkman等人发布。