HIV data for Livingstone district health facilities (2016)

The human immune virus (HIV) is a viral infection that destroys the human immune system resulting in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). If untreated, it can reduce the cluster of CD4 positive T-cells and increases the HIV viral load, thus causing AIDS. The Zambia HIV prevalence rate is among the highest in the sub-Saharan region. According to WHO, HIV/AIDS is a major cause of death in Zambia, with about a million deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS-related causes. With no HIV vaccine readily available and no permanent cure for HIV/AIDS, the antiretroviral (ARV) drug that slows the spread of the virus remains the only option. The ARV shuts down viral reproduction as well as reduces the immune suppression caused by HIV. Taking a combination of three ARV drugs from different classes suppresses the reproduction of the virus. The administration of ARV has challenges of Transmitted Drug Resistance Mutation strains (TDRMs) in the treatment of HIV naïve patients. In this article, we formulate a technique for determining an optimal ARV combination using Bayesian statistical methods. The proposed technique assist the medical personnel responsible in deciding the optimal ARV combination per patient in the presence of TDRMs test. We developed a transition probability matrix chart for each combination. Using the data from Zambia, we demonstrate the computation process and provide an interpretation of the obtained results. The findings from the analysis indicate that the probability of patients remaining on first baseline combinations namely, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 are: 0.96, 0.99, 0.97, 0.91, 0.96, and 0.96 respectively. The probabilities obtained can be
used to choose an optimal ARV combination in the presence of Transmitted Drug Resistance Mutation Strains because you can isolate the particular drugs which the patient is resistance.

人类免疫病毒（HIV）是一种病毒性感染，它能破坏人体免疫系统，导致获得性免疫缺陷综合征（AIDS）。若不进行治疗，HIV会降低CD4阳性T细胞的数量并增加病毒载量，从而引发AIDS。赞比亚的HIV流行率在撒哈拉以南地区位居前列。根据世界卫生组织（WHO）的数据，HIV/AIDS是赞比亚的主要死因，大约有百万死亡病例归因于HIV/AIDS相关原因。鉴于尚无现成的HIV疫苗及对HIV/AIDS的永久性治愈方法，抗逆转录病毒（ARV）药物，作为减缓病毒传播的唯一选择，依然至关重要。ARV药物能抑制病毒复制，并减轻HIV引起的免疫抑制。采用来自不同类别的三种ARV药物的组合可抑制病毒的繁殖。在治疗HIV初诊患者时，ARV药物面临着传播性药物耐药突变菌株（TDRMs）的挑战。在本文中，我们提出了一种使用贝叶斯统计方法确定最佳ARV组合的技术。该技术有助于医疗人员在存在TDRMs测试的情况下，为每位患者决定最佳ARV组合。我们为每种组合开发了一个转移概率矩阵图。利用赞比亚的数据，我们展示了计算过程并对获得的结果进行了诠释。分析结果指出，患者维持首次基础组合（编号为1、2、3、4、5和6）的概率分别为：0.96、0.99、0.97、0.91、0.96和0.96。获得的概率可用于存在传播性药物耐药突变菌株时选择最佳ARV组合，因为您可以通过此方法隔离患者对特定药物的耐药性。