Data for: Government spending cyclicality: Evidence from transitory and persistent shocks in developing countries

Abstract of associated article: We revisit the debate of whether government spending is procyclical in developing countries. Our main contribution is to argue that, beyond exogeneity of the income shock, an empirical analysis of government spending cyclicality must be carefully tailored to the shock's persistence. We first illustrate this point in a simple intertemporal model. We then use instrumental variables estimation to characterize the response of government expenditures to exogenous shocks with different degrees of persistence. Our estimation strategy exploits that: (i) year-to-year variations in rainfall have a significant positive contemporaneous effect on sub-Saharan African countries' real GDP but this effect is transitory; (ii) year-to-year variations in the GDP of sub-Saharan African countries' OECD trading partners have a significant positive contemporaneous effect on sub-Saharan African countries' real GDP and this effect is persistent. Using rainfall as an instrument for sub-Saharan African countries' GDP yields a government consumption expenditures elasticity response of around 0.4 (standard error 0.3). When the instrument is the GDP of sub-Saharan African countries' OECD trading partners the estimated government consumption expenditures elasticity response is around 1.1 (standard error 0.2). The elasticity response of government consumption expenditures to persistent income shocks is thus significantly higher relative to transitory shocks.关联论文摘要：本文重新审视了发展中国家政府支出是否具有顺周期性的学术争论。我们的核心贡献在于提出，除收入冲击的外生性外，针对政府支出周期性的实证分析必须结合冲击的持续性进行针对性设计。我们首先通过一个简单的跨期模型阐释了这一论点，随后采用工具变量估计法，刻画了政府支出对不同持续性外生冲击的响应特征。本估计策略依托两项事实：（i）年度降雨量波动对撒哈拉以南非洲国家的实际国内生产总值（GDP）存在显著正向同期效应，但该效应具有暂时性；（ii）撒哈拉以南非洲国家的经合组织（OECD）贸易伙伴的年度GDP波动，对该地区国家的实际GDP存在显著正向同期效应，且该效应具有持续性。以降雨量作为撒哈拉以南非洲国家GDP的工具变量时，估计得到的政府消费支出响应弹性约为0.4（标准误0.3）；当以撒哈拉以南非洲国家的经合组织贸易伙伴GDP作为工具变量时，估计得到的政府消费支出响应弹性约为1.1（标准误0.2）。由此可见，政府消费支出对持续性收入冲击的响应弹性显著高于暂时性收入冲击。