Impact of climate change on food security in the Yellow River Basin

China’s Yellow River Basin holds significance as a key grain production area. The impact of climate change on the food security of this region is directly related to the national food security. Based on the meteorological and agricultural panel data of nine provinces within the Yellow River Basin spanning 2000-2021, this study innovatively constructs a food security evaluation system from the perspective of sustainable development, applies the “economic-climate” model (C-D-C), explores the impact of climate change on the food security of the Yellow River Basin, and uses the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaling Prediction Climate Model, combined with multi-scenario analysis, to prospectively predict future development trends. The analysis results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2021, the overall food security level in the nine provinces exhibited an upward trend. The annual average temperature and precipitation have an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship with food security. At present, the annual average temperature and precipitation have a positive impact on food security. (2) From a regional perspective, the annual average temperature has the greatest positive impact on the food security of the upper region of the basin, whereas the annual precipitation mainly has a positive impact on the food security of the upper and lower regions of the basin. (3) Extremely high temperatures have a negative impact on food security at a 5% significance level, with the greatest impact on the middle region; frost days have a positive impact on food security at a 10% significance level, but have a significant negative impact on the food security of the lower region of the basin. (4) The prediction results indicate that the temperature and precipitation in the basin will continue to increase from 2030 to 2070. Under the SSP126 scenario, climate factors have a positive contribution to the food security of the basin, but the positive impact gradually declines over time. Under the SSP585 scenario, the average temperature in 2070 will exceed the “impact turning point,” having a negative impact on food security and becoming a threat factor. This research can provide certain theoretical references and practical ideas for developing differentiated climate adaptation strategies in the Yellow River Basin and has specific reference value for assisting the national food security guarantee work.