Complex ecological phenotypes on phylogenetic trees: a Markov process model for comparative analysis of multivariate count data

The evolutionary dynamics of complex ecological traits – including multistate representations of diet, habitat, and behavior – remain poorly understood. Reconstructing the tempo, mode, and historical sequence of transitions involving such traits poses many challenges for comparative biologists, owing to their multidimensional nature. Continuous-time Markov chains (CTMC) are commonly used to model ecological niche evolution on phylogenetic trees but are limited by the assumption that taxa are monomorphic and that states are univariate categorical variables. A necessary first step in the analysis of many complex traits is therefore to categorize species into a pre-determined number of univariate ecological states, but this procedure can lead to distortion and loss of information. This approach also confounds interpretation of state assignments with effects of sampling variation because it does not directly incorporate empirical observations for individual species into the statistical infe...