Data from: An evaluation of transferability of ecological niche models

Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is used widely to study species’
geographic distributions. ENM applications frequently involve transferring
models calibrated with environmental data from one region to other regions
or times that may include novel environmental conditions. When novel
conditions are present, transferability implies extrapolation, whereas, in
absence of such conditions, transferability is an interpolation step only.
We evaluated transferability of models produced using 11 ENM algorithms
from the perspective of interpolation and extrapolation in a virtual
species framework. We defined fundamental niches and potential
distributions of 16 virtual species distributed across Eurasia. To
simulate real situations of incomplete understanding of species’
distribution or existing fundamental niche (environmental conditions
suitable for the species contained in the study area; NF), we divided
Eurasia into six regions and used 1-5 regions for model calibration and
the rest for model evaluation. The models produced with the 11 ENM
algorithms were evaluated in environmental space, to complement the
traditional geographic evaluation of models. None of the algorithms
accurately estimated the existing fundamental niche (NF) given one region
in calibration, and model evaluation scores decreased as the novelty of
the environments in the evaluation regions increased, so we recommend
quantifying environmental similarity between calibration and transfer
regions prior to model transfer, providing an avenue for assessing
uncertainty of model transferability. Different algorithms had different
sensitivities to completeness of knowledge of NF, with implications for
algorithm selection. If the goal is to reconstruct fundamental niches,
users should choose algorithms with limited extrapolation when NF is well
known, or choose algorithms with increased extrapolation when NF is poorly
known. Our assessment can inform applications of ecological niche modeling
transference to anticipate species invasions into novel areas, disease
emergence in new regions, and forecasts of species distributions under
future climate conditions.