The Stocking Impact and Financial-Climate Risk of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program

Drought imposes significant costs on the U.S. agricultural sector, particularly for livestock producers who rely on precipitation to grow forage. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) administers several programs to mitigate the economic costs of drought. One of these programs is the USDA, Farm Service Agency’s (FSA) Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP), which provides payments to livestock producers impacted by drought. Program evaluation results suggest that producers in drought affected counties that received LFP payments achieved similar herd retention and liquidation outcomes as producers in less drought impacted counties that were ineligible for LFP payments. Simulation modeling results in this report suggest that LFP poses a financial-climate risk to the Federal budget. Depending on the future increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, annual Federal Government expenditures on LFP are projected to increase above the current average expenditures by 45–135 percent (in 2022 dollars) by 2100.