Reproducibility snapshot v1.0.0 for "Operationalising EU Strategic Autonomy at grid-substation resolution: a seven-criteria framework applied to Italian adaptation interventions"
收藏资源简介:
Initial reproducibility snapshot accompanying the v3 TERMINAL P8 manuscript submitted to Energy Policy (Elsevier). The paper delivers three contributions on operationalising EU Strategic Autonomy at grid-substation resolution. Contribution 1 (Framework): a seven-criteria strategic-autonomy framework (C7 fuel dependency, C8 distributed-energy-resource bidirectionality, C9 cross-border interconnector concentration, C10 grid-critical-equipment supply chain, C11 software and firmware supply chain, C12 critical-raw-minerals dependency, C13 compute-infrastructure sovereignty) operationalised at the resolution of an individual transmission substation and its 5 km catchment. Worst-case composite aggregation eliminates weighting sensitivity by construction; 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo propagates variance from three parameterised sources (v4.2 modifier variance as truncated Normal; cascade coefficients as Dirichlet on the simplex or truncated Normal; intervention-effect as truncated Normal); Kish-adjusted 400-replication cluster-robust bootstrap produces CI bands at substation-cohort cluster level per Cameron-Gelbach-Miller (2011). The framework composes with a documented cascade substrate integrating four canonical propagation instruments -- Buldyrev et al. (2010) cross-domain topology, Miller and Blair (1985) Leontief input-output, Kemeny and Snell (1976) absorbing chain with Catral-Kirkland-Neumann-Sze closed form, and Rose and Round (1993) social-accounting-matrix distributional decomposition. Cohort-wide execution completes in approximately 5 seconds at production-tier Monte Carlo depth. Contribution 2 (Four Italian case cohorts): the framework is applied to Catanzaro 2 (ITF65 · CALA · 92 subs), Bolzano (ITH10 · NORD · 214), Torino (ITC11 · NORD · 249), and Sicilia central-Palermo (ITG12 · SICI · 1,112) drawn from the 47,906-substation Italian sub-cohort of the SSI Index v4.2 methodology canonical (June 2026 edition). The systemic Layer B returns red uniformly across all four cohorts at Monte Carlo stability 97.4-99.2 percent; the distributional Layer A returns green (Bolzano) or amber (three cohorts). Bolzano is analytically starkest: distributionally low-vulnerability (GDP per capita 44,100 euros, unemployment 3.0 percent, V-socio 0.269) yet systemically high-exposure via cross-border interconnector concentration on the AT-CH Brenner corridor (C9 Herfindahl 3,134) and DER-bidirectionality shock (C8 compound 10.57). Contribution 3 (Baseline comparison): re-appraisal of the four cohorts under Reckien 2023 distributional maladaptation typology, Ciscar PESETA IV aggregate cost-benefit, and Byers 2018 multi-hazard climate exposure produces neutral-to-green verdicts across cohorts where the seven-criteria framework returns red -- systematic underestimation of the systemic-exposure signal illustrated on the four cohorts, with the delta largest at Bolzano. An integration protocol is proposed across six European regulator and EU-instrument decision-support layers (Ofgem RIIO-ED3, CRE TURPE 7, BNetzA Netzentwicklungsplan, ARERA TIQD 2028 renewal, MASE PNIEC, MITECO PNIEC monitoring, CERD 2022/2557 Article 12 self-assessment surface, European Climate Law Article 5(4) national adaptation plans). Tier boundaries are pre-registered against external anchors (US-DOJ HHI tier boundaries 1968-2010 lineage for C7/C9/C10/C12; Sansavini 2025 Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews for C8 log-transformed compound thresholds) fixed prior to case selection and Italian data ingestion; the seven-criteria list itself was frozen in the Systemic Layer methodology specification v1.0 (March 2026), verifiable inside this deposit. Foundation-side illustrative outputs and paired commercial-side outputs share identical cascade substrate SHA-256 identity (verified across development-tier n=1,000 and production-tier n=10,000 Monte Carlo depth for all four cohorts); commercial-side outputs remain outside publication scope under NDA. Deposit contents: four Foundation-side case-study JSONs, case-study manifest with substrate SHA-256 digests, case-study runner code, Docker plus Python 3.10 environment lock, deterministic seed 42 inheritance, cover letter, declarations, manuscript sources (non-anonymised and anonymised twins), and the Systemic Layer methodology specification v1.0 file supplying the calibration-timeline pre-registration anchor.



