A changing climate is snuffing out post-fire recovery in montane forests

Aim:

Climate warming is increasing fire activity in many of Earth’s forested ecosystems. Because fire is an important catalyst for change, investigation of post-fire vegetation response is crucial for understanding the potential for future conversions from forest to non-forest vegetation types. To better understand effects of wildfire and climate warming on forest recovery, we assessed the extent to which climate and terrain influence spatiotemporal variation in past and future post-fire tree regeneration.

Location:

Montane forests, Rocky Mountains, USA

Time Period:

1981-2099

Taxa Studied:

Pinus ponderosa; Pseudotsuga menziesii

Methods:

We developed a network of dendrochronological samples (n = 717) and field plots (n = 1301) from post-fire environments spanning a range of topographic and climatic settings. We then used boosted regression trees to predict annual suitability for post-fire seedling establishment and generalized linear mixed models to predict tot...