Weathering the Storm: How Graphical Visualizations Affect Tropical System Forecast Perceptions

Dataset of responses to a survey conducted in 2021 for a study of the National Hurricane Center's Cone of Uncertainty. Abstract: The National Hurricane Center’s Cone of Uncertainty (COU) is a graphic that communicates the forecast track of the center of tropical systems. Previous research suggests the public is confused by the graphic and desires to know a storm’s hazards in addition to its track. To probe this question, this study conducted an extensive survey during the summer of 2021 to understand how the public perceives the current COU and what modifications they may desire to facilitate storm preparations. Specifically, the research team designed ten graphics for the survey based on a literature review and original concepts. These illustrations were shown to 149 in-person respondents throughout the state of Florida and 4,181 online respondents throughout the United States. By recognizing how the general public understands the current COU and potential modifications to the graphic, this study investigated if a redesign was necessary and what modifications may need to be included. Our finding is that survey respondents preferred a COU that communicates the threat level of a system’s hazards at landfall.