Data and code from: Decades of historical outbreak cycles in a multivoltine insect reveal a plastic phenological response to climate change

Many organisms overwinter in a specific life stage, which means their phenology must be well-timed with seasonal changes in the environment. As environments warm, we expect a delay in the onset of winter. For organisms where temperature is the primary driver of development rate, warming environments also mean faster development. If temperature dependence in the development rate of individuals does not also change, this will cause a mismatch between seasonal timing of the critical overwintering stage and the onset of winter. There are two biological mechanisms by which ectotherms can adapt their phenology in the face of climate change to maintain correct timing: i) organisms undergo evolution of the development thermal reaction norm, and ii) organisms have a plastic response in their development to multiple environmental cues. Here we use high resolution records of densities of the smaller tea tortrix (Adoxophyes honmai) over multiple decades across 9 locations in Japan to infer temperat...,  
 
 
 , , # Data and code from: Decades of historical outbreak cycles in a multivoltine insect reveal a plastic phenological response to climate change

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.573n5tbhg](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.573n5tbhg)

## Description of the data and file structure

The data and scripts archived here contain everything needed to reproduce the results of: Decades of historical outbreak cycles in a multivoltine insect reveal a plastic phenological response to climate change by R.A. Smith, W.A. Nelson, T. Yamanaka, Yasushi Sato, Takeshi Kamimuro, Ryosuke Omata, and Ottar Bjornstad. The scripts are written with relative file paths that assume: (1) The 'data' and 'scripts' directories are stored in the same directory and (2) each script is run from the directory in which it resides.

### Files and variables

#### File: data.zip

**Description:** 

development data.csv -- Laboratory measured development rates measured by Yasushi Sato (For three subpopulations of *A. honmai*, for *A. du...,