Excel programs for the paper “Prediction of Daily New COVID-19 Cases - Difficulties and Possible Solutions”

This Excel file has computation programs (coded in Excel) based on the l-i SEIR and/or l-i AIR epidemic models, related COVID-19 data (reported daily COVID-19 cases in the USA) and simulated/predicted results. The l-i SEIR model and the l-i AIR model are described by different model equations; however, the equations of the two epidemic models can be converted to each other. In other words, the l-i SEIR model (l-i AIR model) is another form of the l-i AIR model (l-i SEIR model). We have previously described how to derive l-i SEIR model equations from l-i AIR model equations [1]. If the two models have the same parameters and coefficients (l, i, N, α and βn), then the calculated daily COVID-19 cases yn from the two model equations are the same.
The simulated or calculated results in this Excel file are presented in the paper entitled “Prediction of Daily New COVID-19 Cases - Difficulties and Possible Solutions” (under review). The related computation programs and calculation results are separately placed in 5 worksheets in the Excel file. Specifically, the Excel programs used for determining transmission rate coefficients βn before Omicron outbreak in the USA are placed in worksheet “time-dependent rate”. The programs for generating Fig 2 in the paper are placed in worksheet “Omicron peaks”. Fig 3 is in worksheet “upper-lower Limits”, Fig 4 in worksheet “Omicron - Reinfection” and Fig 5 in worksheet “Omicron + Reinfection”.

References
[1] Liu, Xiaoping (2024), “Derivation of l-i SEIR model equations from l-i AIR model equations”, Mendeley Data, V2, doi: 10.17632/czx3p9gphh.2