Model and data analyses parameters.

The effective reproduction factor g0 estimated from the (F, ΔF) representation, the relative fraction L/(L + S) of long-term control, defined by Eq (8), together with the rescaling factor fF and the accuracy SF of fatalities to case-count scaling, defined by Eq (6). The equivalent accuracies of the fits presented in Fig 4 are given by Sfit. Also listed is the timescale Tτ used for evaluating Fbefore/Fafter (the number of fatalities per time before/after the peak) in Fig 5, and the cut-off date d′, given by the date at which the daily new cases ΔX of the first peak of the COVID-19 outbreak have dropped by 70% with respect to the maximum.