Replication Data for: Governance Reform Breaks Decarbonization Dead Zones in Public Procurement

Replication Package Complete data and code for the Nature Sustainability article analysing competition–carbon relationships in 21.6 million government contracts across 27 countries (2012–2023). Key Findings EU-context carbon premium: −4.3% (d = −0.08, t = −110; N = 13,638,933) 22 Decarbonization Dead Zones locking €190–250 billion annually beyond GPP reach Staggered DiD (Directive 2014/24/EU): ATT = −5.6 pp (permutation p = 0.042, pre-trend F = 1.32, p = 0.27) RDD at €139k threshold: +15.2% bidders, −0.33% carbon intensity Six converging within-sector evidence lines: Eurostat sectoral GHG, E-PRTR facility matching, within-supplier paired analysis, EU ETS headroom, UK PPN 06/21, measurement-error sensitivity Cross-continental corroboration: US (r = 0.555, p = 0.002), Canada (d = −0.56), Australia (d = 0.19), World Bank GPPD (22 countries, p = 0.016) Contents Data/processed/gprd_with_carbon.parquet: Main analysis dataset (21.6M contracts × EXIOBASE 3.8.2 carbon intensity) Data/reference/: CPV-to-EXIOBASE crosswalks, emission factors, country metadata Data/external/: SBTi targets, Eurostat GHG, Canada/Australia/Chile procurement, OECD governance Data/raw/: EXIOBASE 3.8.2, EU ETS verified emissions, Eurostat sectoral accounts, AusTender scripts/: All computation scripts organized in 20 subfolders (read parquet → produce results/*.json) scripts/pipeline/: Data processing pipeline (parse → harmonize → link carbon) results/: 70 JSON output files from each analysis results/figures/: Publication-quality figures scripts/reanalysis/: 12-step robustness verification suite scripts/lib/: Library modules (causal analysis, data acquisition, mechanism index) tests/: Unit tests for core modules Reproduction See REPRODUCE.md for step-by-step instructions. All analysis scripts read from Data/processed/gprd_with_carbon.parquet and write to results/. Key entry points: python reproduce_manuscript_claims.py — verifies all 6 key manuscript claims python reproduce_data_comprehensive.py — comprehensive data audit python scripts/run_full_pipeline.py — master orchestration (steps 1–8) No hardcoded values in primary analysis — all statistics computed from data. Note on raw data Raw EU TED XML (>90 GB) must be downloaded separately from https://ted.europa.eu. The processed parquet files contain the complete analysis-ready dataset. See Data/raw/README.md for download instructions. Related Publication Ashuraliyev, A. (2025). Governance Reform Breaks Decarbonization Dead Zones in Public Procurement. Nature Sustainability. (Under review) File Organization Due to Zenodo file count limits, files are organized as follows: replication_code.zip: All analysis scripts (20 categories), tests, and reproduction scripts replication_results.zip: All computed results (91 JSON files in 13 subcategories) replication_data_part1-3.zip: Reference data, audit files, processed samples, and small external datasets canada_contract_history.zip: Canadian government contract data (compressed from 104 MB) gprd_with_carbon_part*.zip.*: Main carbon-linked procurement dataset (794 MB, 8 parts) gprd_master_part*.zip.*: Full harmonized procurement master dataset (2.5 GB, 23 parts) PARQUET_REASSEMBLY.md: Instructions for reassembling split parquet files Key documentation files (README, REPRODUCE, CLAIMS_INDEX, etc.) are uploaded individually for direct viewing