Historical and Forecast Land use Data for Ibadan, Nigeria 1984 - 2040

The SLEUTH model was implemented for Ibadan Nigeria, a city in West Africa
with a mostly unregulated growth trajectory. The input physiographic and
historical data for SLEUTH was compiled at spatial resolutions ranging
between 15m – 90m. The temporal resolution of inputs was based on 35 years
of historical data spanning the years 1984 to 2020. The urban (built-up
commercial, residential, and industrial) land use increased almost
four-fold from 3.0% of the total area in 1984 to 11.2% by 2020. The Forest
extent was halved from 73.1% to 36.7% while agriculture and savanna
extents have expanded over time.  Predictors of growth and the
effect of tiling and spatiotemporal resolution on calibration and future
growth forecasts with SLEUTH were determined. Transport and suburban edge
spread were found to be the best predictors of growth. Model calibration
metrics were found to generally improve with finer spatial resolution.
Uncertainty reduced as the time interval between input land use data
shortened but other accuracy metrics tended to improve as the time
interval increased. An intermediate time interval and pixel resolution
provided the best compromise of uncertainty and other accuracy metrics.
Tiling the data allows a good fit within individual tiles but a reduction
in pattern and trend recognition across land-use types. Year 2040
projections when optimized to allow the highest confidence and lowest
uncertainty, suggest a continuation of rapid growth in suburban clusters
and along transport routes. This collection of citywide data and growth
forecasts for Ibadan can aid other researchers and planners interested in
inputs for related projects and models in transport, water resources,
planning, policy evaluation, and environmental management.