Agricultural intensification and land use change: assessing country-level induced intensification, land sparing and rebound effect

In the context of growing societal demands for land based products, crop
production can be increased through expanding cropland or intensifying
production on cultivated land. Intensification can allow sparing land for
nature, but it can also drive further expansion of cropland, i.e. a
rebound effect. Conversely, constraints on cropland expansion may induce
intensification. We tested those hypotheses by investigating the
bidirectional relations between changes in cropland area and intensity,
using a global cross-country panel dataset over 1961-2016. We used a
cointegration approach with additional tests to disentangle long and
short-run causal relations between variables, and total factor
productivity and yields as two measures of intensification. Over the long
run we found support for the induced intensification thesis for low income
countries. In the short run, intensification resulted in a
rebound effect in middle-income countries, which include many key
agricultural producers strongly competitive in global agricultural
commodity markets. This rebound effect manifested for commodities with
high price-elasticity of demand, including rubber, flex crops (sugarcane,
palm oil and soybean), and tropical fruits. Over the long run,
strong rebound effects remained for key commodities such as flex crops and
rubber. Staple cereals such as wheat and rice manifested significant land
sparing. In low-income countries, intensification driven by
increases in total factor productivity was associated with a stronger
rebound effect than yields increases. Agglomeration economies may drive
yields increases for key tropical commodity crops. Our study design could
allow addressing other complex long and short run causal dynamics in land
and social-ecological systems.