Ecological and biogeographic drivers of biodiversity cannot be resolved using clade age-richness data

Estimates of evolutionary diversification rates – speciation and extinction – have been used extensively to explain global biodiversity patterns. Many studies have analysed diversification rates derived from just two pieces of information: a clade's age and its extant species richness. This \"age-richness rate\" (ARR) estimator provides a convenient shortcut for comparative studies, but makes strong assumptions about the dynamics of species richness through time. We demonstrate that use of the ARR estimator in comparative studies is problematic on both theoretical and empirical grounds. We prove mathematically that ARR estimates are non-identifiable: there is no information in the data for a single clade that can distinguish a process with positive net diversification from one where net diversification is zero. Using palaeontological time series, we demonstrate that the ARR estimator has no predictive ability for real datasets. These pathologies arise because the ARR inference procedure y...演化分化速率（evolutionary diversification rates）——即物种形成与灭绝速率——的估算结果，已被广泛用于解释全球生物多样性格局。诸多研究仅依托两项信息开展分化速率分析：某一支系（clade）的分化时间与现存物种丰富度。这类‘年龄-丰富度速率（age-richness rate, ARR）’估算方法为比较研究提供了便捷的捷径，但它对物种丰富度随时间的动态变化施加了严苛的假设条件。我们的研究证实，在比较研究中使用ARR估算方法在理论与实证层面均存在问题。我们通过数学证明表明，ARR估算结果是不可识别的：针对单个支系的数据集，无法获取有效信息以区分净分化为正的演化过程与净分化为零的演化过程。借助古生物学时间序列（palaeontological time series），我们证实ARR估算方法对真实数据集不具备预测能力。这类病态问题的成因在于ARR推断流程……