Demographic Decline, Pragmatic Talk: Local Immigration Discourse under Demographic Pressure in South Korea

As South Korea faces unprecedented demographic decline, marked by the world’s lowest fertility rate and rapid population aging, immigration has begun to feature in local political discourse. This study analyzes over two decades of local council meeting records across administrative districts to examine whether demographic conditions influence rhetorical engagement with immigration, and whether such discourse exhibits ideological polarization. Using computational text analysis, the analysis finds that lower birth rates and population stagnation are associated with increased mentions of immigration, but not with greater partisan divergence in sentiment. Rather than a site of ideological contestation, immigration tends to be discussed in practical terms, often linked to labor shortages and local sustainability. These findings suggest that under conditions of centralized immigration policy, limited migrant presence, and acute demographic pressure, immigration can gain salience in local politics without becoming a polarizing issue. This study contributes to broader debates on demographic change and political responsiveness.面对全球最低生育率与快速人口老龄化共同导致的史无前例的人口衰退危机，韩国国内移民议题已逐渐进入地方政治话语范畴。本研究分析了二十余年来韩国各行政区地方议会会议记录，旨在考察人口状况是否会影响地方对移民议题的话语关注度，以及此类政治话语是否呈现意识形态极化特征。本研究借助计算文本分析方法发现，较低的生育率与人口停滞，与移民议题提及频次的提升存在相关性，但并未伴随党派间情感分歧的加剧。移民议题并未成为意识形态博弈的场域，反而更多以务实视角被讨论，且常与劳动力短缺及地方可持续发展议题挂钩。上述研究结果表明，在移民政策集中化、移民规模有限且人口压力严峻的背景下，移民议题可在地方政治中获得关注度，而不会演变为极化争议。本研究为人口变迁与政治回应性相关的更广范围学术辩论提供了有益补充。