No Reservations: International Order and Demand for the Renminbi as a Reserve Currency

This study identifies 37 central banks that added China’s renminbi (RMB) to their reserve portfolio since 2010. Why do some states diversify into new reserve currencies at an early stage while most continue to take a wait-and-see approach? We argue that state preferences regarding international order influence decisions to invest in RMB. While some states support the liberal, US-led status quo, others prefer an emerging Chinese alternative order. We contend that as state preferences for international order move away from the US model (and toward China), the likelihood of diversifying reserves into RMB should increase. Thus, the decision to invest in RMB is not simply an economic choice. It is also a political act that signals and symbolizes a state’s preferences for a diminution of American global influence and support for a revised order. Employing new United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) ideal points data, we find that states with larger (smaller) ideal point distance with the United States (China) are more likely to adopt RMB as a reserve currency. Furthermore, political consideration—rather than economic concerns about transaction needs, optimal portfolio considerations, or instrumental calculations—best explains emergent demand for the RMB as a reserve currency.本研究甄别出2010年以来将人民币（renminbi, RMB）纳入外汇储备资产组合的37家中央银行。为何部分国家会在早期阶段就将储备资产分散配置至新的储备货币，而多数国家仍持观望态度？我们提出，国家对国际秩序的偏好会影响其配置人民币储备的决策。部分国家支持美国主导的自由主义国际秩序现状，另有部分国家则倾向于中国提出的新兴替代秩序。我们认为，当国家对国际秩序的偏好偏离美国模式（并转向中国模式）时，其将储备资产分散配置为人民币的可能性将随之提升。因此，配置人民币储备的决策并非单纯的经济选择，同时也是一种政治行为：该行为彰显并传递了该国对削弱美国全球影响力的期许，以及对重塑国际秩序的支持。借助联合国大会（United Nations General Assembly, UNGA）全新的理想点数据集，我们发现，与美国（中国）的理想点距离更大（更小）的国家，更有可能将人民币纳入其储备货币篮子。此外，相较于交易需求、最优资产组合配置考量或工具性计算等经济因素，政治考量才是人民币作为储备货币的新兴需求的最佳解释变量。