Epidemiological features of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2017 to 2023: prediction based on time series model

ObjectiveTo understand the epidemic dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, thus providing a scientific basis for early warning, prediction, and prevention and control of this disease. MethodsOn the basis of the case data of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2017 to 2023 in the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, descriptive analysis was performed to reveal the epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis, and the ARIMA model was adopted to predict the epidemic trend of this disease. ResultsFrom 2017 to 2023, the annual reported incidences of human brucellosis cases in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region were 30.63/100 000, 39.92/100 000, 56.84/100 000, 64.77/100 000, 91.03/100 000, 79.57/100 000, and 70.34/100 000, respectively. The incidence rose from 2017 to 2021 and declined from 2022 to 2023 (χ2 = 7 843.95, P Z = 5 561.78, P χ2 = 419.38, P χ2 = 581.18, P 12 model established with the minimum AIC value of 224.65 was the optimal, demonstrating satisfactory fitting effect in prediction. ConclusionsThe reported incidence of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region shows an overall upward trend from 2017 to 2021 and a decreasing trend from 2022 to 2024.