Probability of reaching the WHO 1% elimination as a public health problem goal and the 5% SAC 5% morbidity goal for vaccination only with different coverage levels.

The duration of vaccine induced protection is set at 20 years. Green shaded areas = probability of reaching target > 0.9, Yellow shaded areas = 0.5 ≤ probability of reaching target < 0.9, Red shaded areas = probability of reaching target <0.5.