NUTS2-level predictions of Nature's Contributions to People under different levels of organic farming and climate scenarios across Europe

This dataset contains NUTS2-level predictions for a suite of Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP). We modelled the delivery of five functions that are linked to NCPs: soil organic carbon (SOC) stock (climate regulation), hydraulic conductivity (regulation of freshwater quantity), saturated water content (regulation of freshwater quantity), crop yield (food and feed production), and bacterial diversity. The predictions are made for a set of scenarios which vary the proportion of organic farming and climate projection. The proportions of organic farming are as follows: the current country-specific proportion of Utilised Agricultural Area (UAA), a proportion of 25% in each country, and a proportion of 50% in each country. The climate scenarios are the current climate and the climate projection under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP4.5 and Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) for the period 2041-2026. The dataset also contains a point-level prediction on which the NUTS2-level predictions are based. The development of this dataset was part of the Soilguard project, which was funded by the European Union Horizon 2020 Research & Innovation programme under the Grant Agreement no. 101000371. The aim of the project was to understand how soil management can contribute to environmental, economic, and social wellbeing. The supporting documentation document entails information on how the predictions in this dataset were obtained. For more detail on the underlying assumptions, the development of the models, and the data generation, we refer to two deliverables of the Soilguard project, more specifically Deliverable 5.2 “Report compiling the region-specific set of evidence chains” (Jones et al., 2025) and Deliverable 5.3 “Report on the quantification of environmental, economic and social consequences of soil management and climate change” (Dhiedt et al., 2025). The methodology described in these deliverables followed the Soil Biodiversity and Well-being Framework described by Lladó et al. (2025, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101391).