Managing Global Risks of Invasive Aquatic Plants under Climate Change: Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling and Economic Cost Projections

Invasive aquatic plants obstruct waterways, disrupt fisheries, and cause significant economic, social, and ecological impacts. This study focuses on four globally widespread invasive species: Eichhornia crassipes, Pistia stratiotes, Cabomba caroliniana, and Alternanthera philoxeroides. Distribution points and integrated environmental datasets were collected, and the global potential distribution of these species was predicted using the species distribution modeling framework Biomod2. Additionally, the Invacost database was employed to evaluate economic losses, which included statistical analyses and model fitting. The results indicate that the potential suitable habitats for E. crassipes and P. stratiotes are primarily located in South Asia, parts of Africa, Europe, and Oceania, as well as low- to mid-latitude regions in North and South America. The current potential distribution of A. philoxeroides is concentrated in South Asia, the southeastern United States, most of South America, and some low-suitability areas in Europe and Africa. For C. caroliniana, the predicted suitable habitats are relatively limited and primarily distributed across South Asia, Southeast Asia, the southeastern United States, and southeastern South America. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitats for these species are projected to expand and shift toward higher latitudes, with E. crassipes and P. stratiotes experiencing the largest increases in suitable areas, at 9.99% and 10.21%, respectively. In contrast, the increases for A. philoxeroides and C. caroliniana are relatively modest. Key environmental variables contributing to these predictions include mean annual temperature, population density, and mean temperature of the coldest season. The global economic losses caused by these four invasive aquatic plants are estimated at $7,380.30 million from 1990 to 2025, with an average annual loss of $205.01 million. The model fitting suggests that economic losses have been increasing over time. This study provides predictions of the global potential distribution of four invasive aquatic plants and examines changes in their suitable habitats under future climate conditions. It also evaluates the associated global economic losses. The findings highlight the regions at high risk of invasion by P. stratiotes, E. crassipes, C. caroliniana, and A. philoxeroides, as well as the economic impacts of these invasions. Furthermore, the study underscores the influence of human activities and climate change on the distribution of invasive aquatic plants. These results contribute to the monitoring, early detection, and rapid response to invasive aquatic plants, aiding the development of prevention and management strategies. They provide theoretical support for research on biological invasions and climate change while offering recommendations for raising public awareness and informing government policy decisions. The study aims to offer new perspectives on the prediction of biological invasion risks and economic losses, thereby laying a foundation for improved management and innovative prevention strategies for invasive species.