Monte Carlo Simulation (10,000 Iterations) for Alaali Cash Flow Volatility Index–ESG Extended (A-CFVI-ESG-X): Comparative Analysis of Alba vs. Alcoa

This document details a rigorous Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) conducted for the Alaali Cash Flow Volatility Index–ESG Extended (A-CFVI-ESG-X), part of the Alaali Financial Models Framework (AFMF). The comparative analysis assesses ESG-driven cash flow volatility between Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) and Alcoa under randomized ESG shock scenarios. The study explicitly incorporates ESG amplification logic, generating comprehensive statistical distributions, volatility thresholds, and sensitivity benchmarks. Results provide valuable insights into firm-specific ESG risks, enhancing strategic ESG risk management, capital allocation decisions, and predictive financial risk assessment.