Historic EU payments - regionalised and modelled

1. PURPOSE: This data set provides, in a single source, regionalised (NUTS-2) annual EU expenditure data (in current prices) for specific EU funds - ERDF, Cohesion Fund, EAFRD/EAGGF and ESF. This data can be used, among other purposes, to facilitate analysis on the effects of the EU funds.

In terms of the regionalisation of EU payments made, this work expands and replaces data sets previous published on the ERDF and Cohesion fund with additional years and additional EU funds.
The following studies on ERDF and Cohesion fund expenditure are to a large extent now superseded:
- "Geography of expenditure" Work Package 13 of the ERDF and CF ex-post evaluation 2007-2013 - http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/policy/evaluations/ec/2007-2013/#13
- "Final Report - ERDF and CF Regional Expenditure" (2000-2006) - SWECo 2008 - http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/evaluation/pdf/expost2006/expenditure_final.pdf
- "The Territorial Effects of the Structural Funds" (1994-1999) - ESPON 2005, study 2.2.1 - http://www.espon.eu/main/Menu_Projects/Menu_ESPON2006Projects/Menu_PolicyImpactProjects/structuralfundsimpact.html

The dataset does not contain any identification of the thematic nature of the investments made. This is because there was no harmonised system or information available across funds and across programme periods to estimate the thematic composition of the investments. For the ERDF and Cohesion Fund the studies cited above provided some thematic information for specific programme periods.

2. SCOPE

2.1 REGIONALISATION: This dataset provides the most complete historic picture available to date on the annual EU payments made - in EUR in current prices of the year in question (not adjusted or expressed as “in 2015 prices”) - under different shared management funds mapped to or estimated by NUTS-2 regions;
=> presented in the column "EU_payment_annual".

The work undertaken to regionalise the payment data is predominantly based on the NUTS-2013 version as described in the final report of the 2016 WIIW study (link below). In case the EU funded programmes covered more than one NUTS-2 region the regionalisation of the payments was carried out using either (1) regionalised data provided by the managing authorities or (2) the application of certain apportioning rules to the payments in order to estimate the share of the payment by NUTS-2 region.

In regionalising the data, information on the specific national or regional funding programme, which were the source of the payments, was not retained in the processing of the dataset.

2.2 MODELLING OF “REAL” EXPENDITURE: The yearly breakdown of the dataset follows the cycle of the European Commission payments to the Member States and not the date on which real expenditures took place on the ground. This characteristic may negatively affect any subsequent analytic work to carry out policy assessments.

In order to develop a more realistic estimate of the annual profile of real expenditure, the Commission tasked BERGEN to undertake work to develop a modelling of the “real” annual expenditure on the ground, and to test the robustness and sensitivity of assumptions used (see link to final report below).
=> the modelled annual expenditure is presented in the column "Modelled_annual_expenditure" and it represents the mean of 100 000 simulations on the annual EU payments to estimate real expenditure.
=> The column "Standard_Deviation_of modelled_annual_expenditure" provides the standard deviation of the “modelled_annual_expenditure" which is the root mean square of the set of deviations between each estimated annual payment in 100 000 simulations and the mean of the estimations, presented in the column "Modelled_annual_expenditure”.
=> The column "Standard_Error_of_modelled_annual_expenditure" provides the Standard Error of the "Modelled_annual_expenditure", which is a measure of how far this mean is likely to be from its expected value; that is, its scatter in repeated experiments.

3. COVERAGE: The dataset currently covers the regionalisation of payments under the following programme periods and funds:
- 1989-1993: ERDF-EAFRD (EAGGF)
- 1994-1999: ERDF-EAFRD (EAGGF)-CF
- 2000-2006: ERDF-EAFRD (EAGGF)-CF-ESF
- 2007-2013: ERDF-EAFRD (EAGGF)-CF-ESF

Financial Data from Interreg programmes (ERDF) was not included in the exercise.

(*UPDATE 11/2018*) The data currently covers payment made until end-2015 with partial data for 2016. An update is planned for 2019 when the Commission will add complete payment data from 2016 and payments from 2017 + 2018 (including from the programme period 2014-2020).

4. DOWNLOADING
If downloading, check the format of financial amounts and where necessary change your regional settings and default formatting in your chosen software. You can check the results of your aggregation of the financial data by comparing results with the pre-formatted charts profiled on this metadata page under “featured content”. This guide may help to correct errors found: https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/esif_open_data_userguide.pdf

5. REFERENCES:

A. The EU Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics or "NUTS" system is explained in more detail here: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Glossary:Nomenclature_of_territorial_units_for_statistics_(NUTS)

B. The WIIW study (2016) on "the Consolidation of Financial Data 1989-2013" on payments to programmes (including a description of regionalisation method to NUTS-2) : https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/31c556d1-e394-11e6-ad7c-01aa75ed71a1/language-en/format-PDF/source-68135194

C. The BERGEN study (2017) on "Regionalisation of ESIF payments 1989-2015" (including the modelling by year of when the real expenditure underlying the EU payments may have taken place): https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/cd2133d5-1d04-11e8-ac73-01aa75ed71a1/language-en/format-PDF/source-68135162

目的：本数据集以单一来源提供区域化（NUTS-2）的欧盟年度支出数据（按当年价格计算）的具体欧盟基金——欧洲区域发展基金（ERDF）、凝聚基金、欧洲农业指导和保证基金（EAFRD/EAGGF）和欧洲社会基金（ESF）。此数据可用于多种目的，例如促进对欧盟基金影响的分析。
在欧盟支付的区域化方面，本研究扩展并取代了先前发布的关于ERDF和凝聚基金的数据集，增加了额外的年份和额外的欧盟基金。
以下关于ERDF和凝聚基金支出的研究在很大程度上已被取代：
- '支出地理分布'，ERDF和CF后评估2007-2013年工作包13 - http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/policy/evaluations/ec/2007-2013/#13
- 'ERDF和CF区域支出最终报告'（2000-2006）- SWECo 2008 - http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/evaluation/pdf/expost2006/expenditure_final.pdf
- '结构基金对领土的影响'（1994-1999）- ESPON 2005，研究2.2.1 - http://www.espon.eu/main/Menu_Projects/Menu_ESPON2006Projects/Menu_PolicyImpactProjects/structuralfundsimpact.html

数据集不包含对所做投资主题性质的任何识别。这是因为没有在基金间和项目期间建立统一的信息系统来估计投资的主题构成。对于ERDF和凝聚基金，上述研究为特定的项目期间提供了一些主题信息。

范围：
2.1 区域化：本数据集提供了迄今为止可获得的关于年度欧盟支付的最为完整的历 史画面，这些支付按当年欧元价格计算（未调整或表示为“2015年价格”）- 在映射到或估计为NUTS-2区域的不同共同管理基金下进行；
=> 在“EU_payment_annual”列中展示。

进行支付数据区域化工作的主要依据是2016年WIIW研究最终报告中描述的NUTS-2013版本。如果欧盟资助的项目涵盖了多个NUTS-2区域，则使用以下方法之一进行支付的区域化：（1）由管理当局提供的区域化数据，或（2）对支付应用某些分配规则，以估计NUTS-2区域的支付份额。
在区域化数据时，未保留关于具体国家或地区资金计划的信息，这些计划是支付的数据来源。

2.2 '实际支出'的建模：数据集的年度分解遵循欧洲委员会对成员国支付的周期，而不是实际支出的地面日期。这一特征可能会对任何后续的政策评估分析产生负面影响。
为了开发更现实的年度实际支出轮廓估计，委员会要求BERGEN开展工作，以开发对地面'实际'年度支出的建模，并测试所用假设的稳健性和敏感性（见以下最终报告链接）。
=> 模拟的年度支出在“Modelled_annual_expenditure”列中展示，它代表了对100,000次年度欧盟支付的模拟的平均值，以估计实际支出。
=> “Standard_Deviation_of_modelled_annual_expenditure”列提供了“modelled_annual_expenditure”的标准偏差，这是每个估计的年度支付在100,000次模拟中的偏差集合的均方根，与“Modelled_annual_expenditure”列中展示的估计平均值之间的偏差。
=> “Standard_Error_of_modelled_annual_expenditure”列提供了“Modelled_annual_expenditure”的标准误差，这是一种衡量该平均值可能偏离其预期值有多远的指标；即，它在重复实验中的分散程度。

覆盖范围：当前数据集涵盖了以下项目期间和基金的支付区域化：
- 1989-1993：ERDF-EAFRD（EAGGF）
- 1994-1999：ERDF-EAFRD（EAGGF）-CF
- 2000-2006：ERDF-EAFRD（EAGGF）-CF-ESF
- 2007-2013：ERDF-EAFRD（EAGGF）-CF-ESF

Interreg项目（ERDF）的财务数据未包含在本研究中。
（*更新时间：2018年11月*）当前数据涵盖了截至2015年底的支付数据，以及2016年的部分数据。计划于2019年更新，届时委员会将添加2016年的完整支付数据和2017年+2018年的支付数据（包括2014-2020年的项目期间）。

下载：如果下载，请检查财务金额的格式，并在必要时更改您选择的软件中的区域设置和默认格式。您可以通过比较结果与在此元数据页面下“精选内容”中概述的预格式化图表来检查您的财务数据聚合结果。本指南可能有助于纠正发现的错误：https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/esif_open_data_userguide.pdf

参考文献：
A. 欧盟统计领土命名法或“NUTS”系统在此处有更详细的解释：http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Glossary:Nomenclature_of_territorial_units_for_statistics_(NUTS)
B. 关于1989-2013年对项目（包括对NUTS-2区域化方法的描述）的财务数据整合的WIIW研究（2016年）：https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/31c556d1-e394-11e6-ad7c-01aa75ed71a1/language-en/format-PDF/source-68135194
C. 关于1989-2015年ESIF支付区域化的BERGEN研究（包括对欧盟支付可能发生的实际支出的年度建模）：https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/cd2133d5-1d04-11e8-ac73-01aa75ed71a1/language-en/format-PDF/source-68135162