Distribution range and richness of plant species are predicted to increase by 2100 due to a warmer and wetter climate in northern China

The warming global climate is threatening terrestrial ecosystem stability,
including plant community structure and diversity. However, it remains
unclear how distribution, richness and turnover of plant species are
impacted by warming and wetting in northern China. In the present study,
species distribution models were applied to predict the spatial
distribution of 5,111 plant species based on 111,071 occurrence records in
northern China. Additionally, variations in species richness and turnover
rates were predicted for 2100 under three scenarios. The results indicated
that approximately 70% of plant species will expand in their distribution,
resulting in an increase in species richness. These changes will be driven
mainly by temperature seasonality (TSN), annual precipitation (MAP), and
mean temperature of the coldest quarter (MTCQ). However, about 30-40% of
the species will face extinction risks, including a considerable number of
endemic and Red-Listed species, and suitable habitat loss (LSH) will
exceed 30%. Narrow-ranging species will be more likely to lose a larger
percentage of their suitable habitats than wide-ranging species,
highlighting their sensitivity to environmental changes. Importantly, it
emerged that species turnover rates will increase linearly with ecological
vulnerability at the grid level, indicating that community structure and
species composition are easily affected by climate change in ecologically
vulnerable areas. Therefore, biodiversity hotspots with high species
richness in the southern study areas, as well as regions exhibiting both
fast species turnover and significant ecological vulnerability, should be
prioritized for conservation. These findings provide insights into how
species composition and richness in plant communities vary with global
climate change and provide effective ecological conservation and
management strategies.