Predicting potential distributions of large carnivores in Kenya: An occupancy study to guide conservation

Aim: Species distribution maps are frequently the foundation upon which
species-specific conservation strategies are developed, however, mapping
species distribution is challenging, especially across large spatial
extents. Our aim was to use a novel empirical approach to predict the
national distribution for all six large carnivore species found in Kenya
to guide conservation and management decisions by identifying knowledge
and conservation gaps. Location: Kenya Methods: Data on carnivore presence
and absence were collected through questionnaires and sightings-based
surveys. These data were combined and analysed using single-season
false-positive occupancy models, which account for imperfect detections
and false positives. To inform conservation strategies, we used the
occupancy outputs to make predictions for unsampled areas and create
occupancy-based distribution maps, where ψ>0.50, to (1) quantify
differences with IUCN Red List range maps, (2) quantify overlap with
wildlife areas and (3) identify areas of high carnivore richness. Results:
Large carnivore occupancy was associated with land conversion, habitat,
and prey availability. Our results suggest that all six species are widely
distributed across Kenya and reveal substantial differences in
distribution maps compiled by the IUCN Red List. More specifically, our
occupancy-based distribution maps predict a much larger distribution for
African wild dog (5.09X), lion (4.77X), and leopard (1.46X), similar
distribution for cheetah, and smaller distribution for spotted hyaena
(0.84X) and striped hyaena (0.65X). For all large carnivores, the vast
majority (~80%) of their predicted distribution falls outside wildlife
areas and northern Kenya is predicted to have the highest large carnivore
richness. Main conclusions: Our results are encouraging as large
carnivores may be widely distributed across Kenya, in some cases
potentially more so than previously acknowledged. However, much of this
range lies outside wildlife areas and represents areas of concern both for
conservation and human livelihoods illustrating the challenges of
conserving large carnivores across their range.