Risk of short-term biodiversity loss under more persistent precipitation regimes

Recent findings indicate that atmospheric warming increases the persistence of weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, resulting in sequences of longer dry and wet periods compared to historic averages. The alternation of progressively longer dry and wet extremes could increasingly select for species with a broad environmental tolerance. As a consequence, biodiversity may decline. Here, we explore the relationship between the persistence of summer precipitation regimes and plant diversity by subjecting experimental grassland mesocosms to a gradient of dry-wet alternation frequencies whilst keeping the total precipitation constant. The gradient varied the duration of consecutive wet and dry periods, from 1 up to 60 days with or without precipitation, over a total of 120 days. An alternation of longer dry and wet spells led to a severe loss of species richness (up to –75% relative to the current rainfall pattern in W-Europe) and functional diversity (enhanced dominance of grasses relative ...