Summary of real-time prediction accuracy, by prediction horizon.

These results are aggregated across all provinces. The R2 and 95% PI coverage columns present the overall correlation coefficient and prediction interval coverage. The relative MAE columns show five quantiles of the distribution of province-level relative MAEs comparing the real-time model at the given horizon to a seasonal baseline model at the given horizon: Q5 (the 5th percentile), Q25 (25th percentile), Q50 (median), Q75 (75th percentile), and Q95 (the 95th percentile). The relative MAEs were calculated as the MAE from the real-time predictions divided by the MAE from the seasonal average predictions, therefore values larger than 1 indicate that the real-time models showed more absolute error on average than the seasonal models.