Monthly Temperature Projections 2050-2079

What does the data show? This data shows monthly averages of surface temperature (°C) for 2050-2079 from the UKCP18 regional climate projections. The data is for the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data. What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for the average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower'. E.g. 'tas July Median' is the median value for July. To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://climatedataportal.metoffice.gov.uk/pages/user-guide Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas January Median’ values. What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the monthly averages of temperature for 2050-2079 were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty. Data source tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_12_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (median) tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_05_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (lower) tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_04_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (upper) UKCP18 v20190731 (downloaded 04/11/2021) Useful links Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal该数据集展示了什么内容？ 本数据集呈现了基于英国气候预测18（UKCP18）区域气候预测得到的2050-2079年逐月地表气温（摄氏度）平均值，对应高排放情景（典型浓度路径8.5，RCP8.5）。 数据集局限性 我们建议使用多个网格单元格，或关注点位周边网格单元格的平均值，以帮助用户感知该区域的气候变异性，从而获得更可靠的数值集，用于基于本数据集的决策制定。 数据集的命名规则是什么？如何探索该数据集？ 本数据集包含时段平均值字段，命名格式为「tas（地表气温）」、月份以及"upper"、"median"或"lower"的组合。例如，"tas July Median"即代表7月地表气温的中位数。 如需了解如何探索本数据集，请参阅以下页面：https://climatedataportal.metoffice.gov.uk/pages/user-guide 请注意，若在ArcGIS地图查看器（ArcGIS Map Viewer）中浏览，地图将默认显示"tas January Median"（1月地表气温中位数）的数值。 「中位数（median）」「上限值（upper）」与「下限值（lower）」分别代表什么含义？ 气候模型是气候系统的数值化表征。为捕捉未来气候预测的不确定性，研究人员会运行一组（即集合）气候模型，每个集合成员的初始条件或模型配置均存在细微差异。综合所有模型的输出结果，用户可得到未来可能出现的一系列合理情景。本数据集的模型预测包含12个独立的集合成员。 为筛选可用的集合成员，研究人员先针对每个集合成员计算2050-2079年的逐月气温平均值，再按每个点位的数值从低到高排序。其中"lower"字段对应排名第二低的集合成员结果，"upper"字段对应排名第二高的集合成员结果，"median"字段则为集合结果的中位数。本数据集提供了中位数与集合成员的离散区间，用以表征预测中可能出现的结果范围；通过输出结果的离散程度可推断预测的不确定性，下限值与上限值的差值越大，则不确定性越高。 数据来源 tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_12_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc（中位数） tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_05_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc（下限值） tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_04_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc（上限值） UKCP18 v20190731（下载时间：2021年11月4日） 实用链接 英国气候投影（UKCP，UK Climate Projections）的更多相关信息。 英国气象局气候数据门户中关于气候数据解读的更多内容