Data from: Modelling the current and future biodiversity distribution in the Chilean Mediterranean Hotspot. The role of protected areas network in a warmer future

Aim: Mediterranean Chile is part of the five recognized Mediterranean-type
climates in the world and harbors a very rich floral diversity. Climate
change has been reported as a significant threat to its biodiversity. We
used the flora of Mediterranean Chile to analyze how biodiversity
patterns, as measured by Phylogenetic Diversity, genus and species
richness will respond to climate change scenarios and identify the areas
that will harbor the greatest evolutionary potential and biodiversity
richness. We also evaluated how these spatial patterns are depicted within
the current network of protected areas. Location: Chilean Mediterranean
climate-type Region, South America. Methods: Biodiversity metrics were
evaluated for current and future climatic scenarios. Species distribution
models were done using Maxent for 1.727 species and 571 genera.
Relationships between species/genera gain, loss and turnover were
evaluated. For Mediterranean endemic species, loss and gain was also
related to life form. Finally, variation in species gain, loss and
turnover was evaluated in future climate change scenarios within and
outside Mediterranean Chile state protected areas. Results: We found a
general decrease in species richness in the entire Region toward future
climate change scenarios. Phylogenetic Diversity is predicted to be higher
than expected by richness in the north and south of the area, and lower
than expected by richness in the Andes mountain. The highest average
species and genus loss is predicted to occur outside the protected areas,
meanwhile species and genus gain is higher within them. Main conclusions:
Future biodiversity patterns are reported here for the first time in the
Chilean Mediterranean Region. Our findings enhance the importance of the
current protected areas to harbor this future variation, despite their
reduced number and size along the region.