Dataset and scripts from: Predicting temperature mortality and selection in natural Drosophila populations

The study develops and validates a theoretical model to predict
thermal mortality under natural conditions, based on measurements of
mortality performed in the laboratory at multiple constant
temperatures. The theoretical model first fits a thermal
tolerance landscape, which describes how survival probability is
affected by both temperature and exposure time, to the empirical
measurements of mortality obtained in the laboratory under
controlled conditions. Then, employing a numerical approximation
to the analytical solution based on differential
calculus, it combines this tolerance landscape
with ambient temperature records in natural settings
to predict the survival probability curve under
these thermal conditions. These predictions were validated by
contrasting predicted and observed mortality curves in 11 Drosophila
species under three different warming rates, reported in the literature,
which were virtually indistinguishable. Having validated the model, the
study then examines how mortality should be affected
by climate change in a natural population of Drosophila
subobscura from Santiago, Chile, employing temperature records for this
location during 1984 - 1991 and 2014 - 2018. The cumulative mortality
predicted from temperature records closely
resemble the periods of population collapse
recorded for this population during the Austral
summer and, according to the model, warming temperatures
in the past 30 years may have advanced this period by almost a
month. This methodology is highly general and can in principle be
employed to predict temperature mortality in small ectotherms under any
varying thermal regime.