Table_1_Current Status of Forecasting Toxic Harmful Algae for the North-East Atlantic Shellfish Aquaculture Industry.docx

Across the European Atlantic Arc (Scotland, Ireland, England, France, Spain, and Portugal) the shellfish aquaculture industry is dominated by the production of mussels, followed by oysters and clams. A range of spatially and temporally variable harmful algal bloom species (HABs) impact the industry through their production of biotoxins that accumulate and concentrate in shellfish flesh, which negatively impact the health of consumers through consumption. Regulatory monitoring of harmful cells in the water column and toxin concentrations within shellfish flesh are currently the main means of warning of elevated toxin events in bivalves, with harvesting being suspended when toxicity is elevated above EU regulatory limits. However, while such an approach is generally successful in safeguarding human health, it does not provide the early warning that is needed to support business planning and harvesting by the aquaculture industry. To address this issue, a proliferation of web portals have been developed to make monitoring data widely accessible. These systems are now transitioning from “nowcasts” to operational Early Warning Systems (EWS) to better mitigate against HAB-generated harmful effects. To achieve this, EWS are incorporating a range of environmental data parameters and developing varied forecasting approaches. For example, EWS are increasingly utilizing satellite data and the results of oceanographic modeling to identify and predict the behavior of HABs. Modeling demonstrates that some HABs can be advected significant distances before impacting aquaculture sites. Traffic light indices are being developed to provide users with an easily interpreted assessment of HAB and biotoxin risk, and expert interpretation of these multiple data streams is being used to assess risk into the future. Proof-of-concept EWS are being developed to combine model information with in situ data, in some cases using machine learning-based approaches. This article: (1) reviews HAB and biotoxin issues relevant to shellfish aquaculture in the European Atlantic Arc (Scotland, Ireland, England, France, Spain, and Portugal; (2) evaluates the current status of HAB events and EWS in the region; and (3) evaluates the potential of further improving these EWS though multi-disciplinary approaches combining heterogeneous sources of information.

在欧洲大西洋弧（苏格兰、爱尔兰、英格兰、法国、西班牙和葡萄牙）地区，贝类养殖业以贻贝的养殖为主导，次之为牡蛎和蛤蜊。多种在空间和时间上均存在变异性且具毒性的藻华物种（HABs）通过其产生的生物毒素在贝类体内积累和浓缩，对消费者的健康产生负面影响。目前，对水体中有害细胞和贝类体内毒素浓度的监管监测是预警双壳类水生生物中毒素事件升高的主要手段，当毒性超过欧盟规定的限制时，捕捞作业将暂停。然而，尽管这种做法在保障人类健康方面通常成效显著，但它并不能提供支持养殖业进行业务规划和捕捞所需的早期预警。为了解决这一问题，一系列网络门户已得到开发，以广泛共享监测数据。这些系统正从“即时预测”转向操作性的早期预警系统（EWS），以更好地减轻藻华带来的有害影响。为此，EWS正在整合一系列环境数据参数，并发展多样化的预测方法。例如，EWS正在越来越多地利用卫星数据和海洋学模型的结果来识别和预测藻华的行为。模型表明，某些藻华在影响养殖场所之前可以被传输到相当远的距离。正在开发交通灯指数，为用户提供对藻华和生物毒素风险的易于理解的评估，并使用专家对这些多重数据流的分析来评估未来的风险。正在开发概念验证EWS，以结合模型信息和现场数据，在某些情况下采用基于机器学习的分析方法。本文：（1）回顾了与欧洲大西洋弧地区（苏格兰、爱尔兰、英格兰、法国、西班牙和葡萄牙）贝类养殖业相关的藻华和生物毒素问题；（2）评估了该区域藻华事件和EWS的现状；（3）评估了通过多学科方法结合异构信息源进一步改进这些EWS的潜力。