Climatic Index Associated with the Interannual Variability of Rice Yield in Rio Grande do Sul

Abstract The main of this work is to highlight climatic patterns that influence the interannual variability of rice yield in Rio Grande do Sul (RS). Series of rice yield data from 47 municipalities were separated into three groups according to their yield (low, medium and high) based on clustering analysis. Lag correlations between climatic indicators associated with teleconnections patterns and mean rice yield of each group evidenced the importance of each index for variability of the yield in RS. The most significant and persistent correlations with rice yield were the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (negative), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (negative) an atmospheric (positive) and oceanic (negative) components of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. In addition, Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean, between 20° S-30° S and 20° O-40° W (negative correlation) have a significant correlation with the rice yield. The influence of some of the climate indices had not yet been discussed from the agricultural point of view. These results can be a crucial information in decision-making and rice yield forecast in Rio Grande do Sul.