Data from: Trade-offs and synergies between bird conservation and wildfire suppression in the face of global change

1. The combined effects of climate change and other factors, such as land use change or fire disturbance, pose daunting challenges for biodiversity conservation worldwide. 2. In this study, we predicted the future effectiveness of the Natura 2000 (N2000), the current network of protected areas (PA) in Europe, at maintaining and representing suitable environmental conditions for a set of 79 bird species between 2000 and 2050 in a fire-prone area strongly affected by land abandonment processes in NE Spain. We then compared PA performance against a set of alternative priority areas for conservation, which take into account fire–vegetation dynamics, selected by using a conservation planning tool (MARXAN). Fire–vegetation dynamics were modelled using a process-based model (MEDFIRE MODEL) under alternative fire management and climate change scenarios. Bird assemblage distributions were predicted using the spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling frameworkSESAMusing distribution models from individual species that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire–vegetation dynamics. 3. The amount of suitable environmental conditions within the N2000 network was predicted to fall by around 15%, on average, over the next decades in relation to the initial conditions, but could be partially modulated by fire management policies in the near future. The efficiency of the current PA system was predicted to decrease from 17.4 to 15% over the next decades. However, a more efficient PA system could be achieved with a conservation planning approach that explicitly considers fire–vegetation dynamics and their management. 4. Synthesis and applications: Our findings shed light on: (1) how the current Natura 2000 might still hold an important bird conservation value by 2050; (2) how the relocation of some protected areas could be considered along the next decades to substantially increase bird conservation effectiveness; and (3) how the integration of fire-vegetation dynamics, fire management policies and their objectives within conservation planning can provide ‘win-win’ solutions for bird conservation and fire prevention in fire-prone abandoned landscapes.1. 气候变化与土地利用变化、火灾干扰等其他因素的复合影响，给全球生物多样性保护带来了严峻挑战。 2. 本研究针对西班牙东北部受土地撂荒过程强烈影响的易火区域，预测了2000年至2050年间欧洲现有保护地（protected areas, PA）网络——自然2000（Natura 2000, N2000）在维持和呈现79种鸟类适宜生境条件方面的未来效能。随后，本研究将现有保护地系统的表现与一组考虑了火灾-植被动态的替代优先保护区域进行对比，后者通过保护规划工具MARXAN筛选得到。火灾-植被动态通过基于过程的模型（MEDFIRE MODEL），在不同火灾管理与气候变化情景下进行模拟。鸟类群落分布则通过空间显式物种集合模拟框架（SESAM），结合分层整合气候变化与野火-植被动态的单个物种分布模型进行预测。 3. 预测显示，未来数十年内，自然2000网络内的适宜生境总量较初始状态平均下降约15%，但在不久的将来可通过火灾管理政策得到一定程度的缓解。现有保护地系统的效能预计将在未来数十年间从17.4%降至15%。然而，若采用明确考虑火灾-植被动态及其管理的保护规划方法，则可构建效率更高的保护地系统。 4. 综合与应用：本研究结果阐明了以下三点：（1）截至2050年，现有自然2000网络仍可保有重要的鸟类保护价值；（2）未来数十年可考虑调整部分保护地的选址，以大幅提升鸟类保护效能；（3）将火灾-植被动态、火灾管理政策及其目标整合至保护规划中，可为易火撂荒景观中的鸟类保护与火灾预防带来"双赢"解决方案。