Association between monthly leptospirosis cases and El Niño and meteorological variables, controlling for 12-month harmonic variation.

Selected single predictor models. Smaller values of BIC signify a better fit to the data. All lags between 0 and 6 months were tested for each variable. For the cumulative sum variables, all ranges from the previous 0 to 9 months were tested. Only the lag or cumulative sum with the lowest BIC score for each variable is presented here. A difference in the BIC scores of greater than 2 is considered to be important. All of the models include sine and cosine terms with a 12-month period. For the full table of results, see Supporting Table S3.