NextGenerationEU: forecasted additional increase in yearly GDP 2021-2030

The NextGenerationEU economic stimulus is set to boost the European economy in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. The plans for NextGenEU were created in 2020, during the height of the Coronavirus crisis, with all member states of the European Union experiencing drastic reductions in their GDPs. The stimulus packages were decided upon by the institutions of the EU along with the member states, who were required to draw up national recovery & resilience plans outlining how they would allocate the funds, with the aim of boosting the long-term growth of the European economy in a sustainable and ecological way. The economic stimulus is set to boost the overall GDP growth of the EU by between 0.6 percent and 1.5 percent depending on the year and the forecasted scenario. Forecasts which operate under the assumption that member states will spend their allocated funds early in the period of 2021-2026 (the period over which NGEU is set to run) show a rapid increase in GDP growth over the years from 2022 to 2024, after which growth increases will be more moderate. On the other hand, forecasts which assume that member states will spend funds equally across the years 2021-2026 show a less pronounced spike in growth, but which results in a higher rate of growth in the latter half of the 2020s, after the programs' implementation periods are finished.

《下一代欧盟经济刺激计划》旨在助力欧洲经济在新冠疫情期间的复苏。该计划的制定始于2020年，正值新冠疫情高潮，当时欧盟所有成员国均经历了GDP的急剧下降。欧盟机构与成员国共同决定了刺激方案，并要求成员国制定国家复苏与弹性计划，明确资金分配方案，旨在以可持续和生态友好的方式促进欧洲经济的长期增长。该经济刺激计划预计将使欧盟整体GDP增长率在0.6%至1.5%之间提升，具体取决于年份和预测情景。基于成员国将在2021-2026年期间（即NGEU实施期间）提前使用分配资金的假设的预测显示，从2022年至2024年，GDP增长率将迅速上升，此后增长将更为温和。另一方面，假设成员国将在2021-2026年期间均匀分配资金的预测显示，增长峰值不如前者明显，但预计在2020年代后半叶，即计划实施期结束后，增长率将更高。