Data from: The effects of climate change on a mega-diverse country: predicted shifts in mammalian species richness and turnover in continental Ecuador.

Ecuador is one of 17 nations with the greatest diversity in the world, sheltering lowland and mountain regions that are considered global biodiversity hotspots. While these regions are projected to be highly impacted by climate change, it is not clear what would be the consequences for faunal diversity and conservation. To address this issue, we used an ensemble of 8 species distribution models (SDM) to determine future shifts and identify areas of high changes in species richness and species turnover of 201 mammals. Distributions were projected using two different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We also contrasted two extreme dispersal scenarios (no-dispersal versus full dispersal). Our results showed extended distributional shifts all over the country. For most groups, current mammal diversity in Ecuador is expected to decrease significantly under all climate change scenarios and dispersal assumptions. The Northern Andes and the Amazonian region would remain diversity hotspots but with a significant decrease in the number of species. All predictions, including the most conservative scenarios in terms of dispersal and climate change, predict very important changes in the distribution of mammal diversity in Ecuador. Primates might be the most severely affected because they would have fewer suitable areas compared to other mammals. Our work supports that it is imperative for sound conservation strategies in Ecuador to incorporate the impact of climate change.厄瓜多尔是全球生物多样性最为丰富的17个国家之一，境内拥有被认定为全球生物多样性热点的低地与山地生态系统。尽管这些区域预计将受到气候变化的强烈冲击，但目前尚不清楚此举会对动物群多样性及保护工作造成何种影响。为解决这一问题，本研究采用8个物种分布模型（Species Distribution Models, SDM）的集成框架，对201种哺乳动物的未来分布变化进行预测，并识别出物种丰富度与物种更替率变化显著的区域。本次预测以2050年为时间节点，共设置两种不同的气候变化情景，同时还对比了两种极端扩散情景：无扩散与完全扩散。研究结果显示，整个厄瓜多尔境内均出现了大范围的物种分布位移。针对绝大多数哺乳动物类群而言，无论采用何种气候变化情景与扩散假设，厄瓜多尔当前的哺乳动物多样性预计都将出现显著下降。北安第斯山脉与亚马孙区域仍将维持生物多样性热点的地位，但区域内的物种数量将出现明显缩减。所有预测结果——即便采用最为保守的扩散与气候变化情景——均表明，厄瓜多尔的哺乳动物多样性分布将发生极为显著的变化。灵长类动物可能受影响最为严重，相较于其他哺乳动物类群，其适宜栖息地的面积将大幅减少。本研究证实，厄瓜多尔若要制定科学合理的保护策略，必须将气候变化的影响纳入考量范畴。